The BBC and its reluctance address climate change

I wanted to send the following to the BBC and to their Science editor David Shukman specifically. But that isn't possible and what I wrote is too long to go in their complaints form. I've been in this place with the BBC before - they write something which may shape the minds of millions but to respond to it and question it, well, you have to have a blog to do it! And then they'll probably never ever see it anyway. However, it makes me feel better so here's what I would have sent to David.Shukman@bbc.co.uk (you know, I just might try that ...):

Dear Mr Shukman,

Having just watched your video item ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24905945 ) titled “Why was Typhoon Haiyan so fierce?” I’m left little the wiser. In the studio you used a very fancy “virtual reality” simulation explaining how a typhoon forms, but this was basic meteorology and failed to answer to “why was it so fierce?” The closest you managed was “higher temperatures mean more energy” although you gave no explanation as to whether these ocean temperatures were higher than usual and if so, why this might be. Surely this might have helped answer your own question.

You then added “It’s the result of weather at its most extreme.” Yet in the item you also had Julian Heming from the Met Office saying that it might one of the strongest typhoons to ever make landfall. This point seemed uncertain and I’ve read on other news sites that it “might be” or “it was” - I suppose we will have to wait for confirmation. Clearly though, it’s entirely possible that its landfall strength was unprecedented.

So, was Typhoon Haiyan the result of weather at its most extreme”? Was Hurricane Sandy “weather at its most extreme”? Were the fires experienced in Texas in 2011 “the most extreme”? Then, the Texas forest services stated ( http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/09/06/312811/hell-and-high-water-fires-extreme-conditions/ ) “This is unprecedented fire behavior. No one on the face of this Earth has ever fought fires in these extreme conditions.”. Tom Boggus, director of the Texas Forest Service added:  ”It’s historic. We’ve never seen fire seasons like this. We’ve never seen drought like this.”

Is it possible though that these are not “the most extreme”? Is it possible that our climate is warming, and given that “higher temperatures mean more energy” (as you explained) then these events could be replaced by new “extremes”. Typhoon Haiyan may indeed be the “most extreme” weather - for now.

Later, almost at the end of the 2 1/2 minute item trying to answer your title question we have a video extract of an impassioned plea from Nadarev Sano of the Philippines at the UN Warsaw climate talks. You said “It was an emotional moment”, so acknowledging in passing what he and his country have suffered and why his speech brought tears to many at the conference and why he has said he will fast for the duration unless something is done to address climate change by Cop19.

However, with hardly a pause for breath, you add the same predictable, tired and distracting statement that we hear again and again - “… the fact is though that no single weather event can ever be blamed on climate change.” This empty phrase is still likely to make the average potentially concerned person slump back complacently into their armchair. If no single weather event can be attributed to climate change, then logically, none can. If no weather even can be attributed to climate change then what on earth are 95+% of climate scientists so worried about, why does the UK express a wish to meet “our climate targets” and what is the purpose of Cop19?

Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has written: The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be….

The air is on average warmer and moister than it was prior to about 1970 and in turn has likely led to a 5–10 % effect on precipitation and storms that is greatly amplified in extremes. The warm moist air is readily advected onto land and caught up in weather systems as part of the hydrological cycle, where it contributes to more intense precipitation events that are widely observed to be occurring.”

To be fair, you added “But scientists do say warmer oceans could make the most vicious storms more likely.” So in the last seconds we finally grasp the science - warmer oceans may make typhoons stronger. So then, it seems that the one big question to answer is: “Are the oceans warming and if so, why?” 

Given that you are the BBC’s Science Editor I expect it’s a question you would be keen to answer. I look forward to your news item giving the answer.